{"id":3145,"date":"2018-04-03T22:21:27","date_gmt":"2018-04-04T06:21:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dev.jirisancapital.com\/?p=3145"},"modified":"2018-07-17T17:59:36","modified_gmt":"2018-07-18T01:59:36","slug":"trade-wars-fx-carry-part-1-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dev.jirisancapital.com\/ja\/trade-wars-fx-carry-part-1-3\/","title":{"rendered":"Basics of FX Carry: Part 1 of 3"},"content":{"rendered":"

Carrying the Sails of Global Asset Allocation<\/h2>\r\nFX carry is the enduring financial anomaly. Eugene Fama described its success as \u201cstartling\u201d in his seminal 1984 paper (Forward and Spot Exchange Rates<\/em>). Theoretically, FX carry should not work. Empirically, it does.\r\n\r\nIt is the wind in the sails of many strategies containing global fixed income. Emerging market equity returns can also be positively affected by FX carry due to the higher yields generally available in emerging market currencies.\r\n\r\nTrump is throwing down a challenge to any politically convenient trading partner with whom the U.S. maintains a significant trade deficit. We can anticipate tit-for-tat tariffs, some of which have already begun. This is the logical economic and political response to unilateral U.S. action.\r\n\r\nTo paraphrase Clausewitz, FX policy is a continuation of (trade) war waged by other means. Governments often devalue their currency to alter the terms of international trade. Imports get expensive at the same time that exports get cheaper. If trade wars are indeed upon us, FX volatility is likely to rise.\r\n\r\nFinancial markets will react to short run changes in exchange rates, causing knock-on effects in both global bonds and equities. We\u2019ll examine the repercussions through the prism of FX carry. Though it is itself a na\u00efve, standalone strategy, the carry trade is usually embedded in global bond and equity investing when the investor\u2019s home currency is a developed market currency (e.g. U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, Euro).\r\n\r\nIn this 3-part series, we examine FX carry and its remarkable yet often unnoticed role in foreign security returns. In this installment, we examine:\r\n